Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
